Friday, November 1, 2013

Breeder's Cup 2013 - Late Pick 4


Santa Anita Racetrack

If you know anything about gambling, well then you probably know a lot more than I do. That being said one of the great horse racing days of the year is going on over at Santa Anita racetrack where the Breeder's Cup races are taking my place. My handicapping skills being what they are I HIGHLY caution anyone using the information below to actually wager money. I am not one to identify high odds long shots and these are just some of my thoughts on the last four races taking place tomorrow.


My Wife & I at
Santa Anita Derby 2013


Race 9 BC Turf 1.5 Miles

Big Blue Kitten – He has one big run, oh but what a run the big guy has. He should be on a 3-Race Win streak in G1 races for those who saw the TurfClassic at Belmont on 9/28. He encountered traffic that stalled his big run, then managed to wind it up again and just missed. Now I will say this, due to his running style, he always encounters trouble. Such is life when you come from the back of a big field, but he’s done it before. Given a relatively good trip, it’s his day.

Point of Entry
Point of Entry – At another time, he may have been a single for me in my pick-4 ticket for this race. One of the best distance turf horses I’ve seen in recent memory the Point of Entry of 6 months ago smokes this field. But today’s entry is coming off an injury and a 4-month layoff to heal a leg fracture and returns in a tough race. I can’t leave him out, because well … he still is who he is. But he’s not my top pick either.

Little Mike – The defending champion in this race is hard to ignore at 1.5 miles, this is his distance, he just won the aforementioned TurfClassic at Belmont on 9/28 holding off Blue Kitten and Real Solution in the deep stretch and he proved last year that he likes the turf course at Santa Anita. Add hall of famer Mike Smith to that package and you have a potential repeat winner in the Turf.

Real Solution – The winner of the Arlington Million just came off his first try at this distance and finished a good 3rd behind Little Mike and Big Blue Kitten. Already owns a victory over the former and yet to face the latter. The running style says he gets this distance and he fits in this race. I can’t eliminate him from my Pick 4.

The Fugue – I took a look at the filly from overseas. I don’t like the angle of shipping in from overseas much less the girl going long against the boys. Yes, I know she won at this distance, and in fact has hit the board in all four tries at this distance so far in her career. And she may hit the board again today, just not the winner.  She was in the Female Turf Race last year at Santa Anita and finished 3rd in a race that included Marketing Mix who I think would have trouble against a group like this. She won’t be on my Pick 4 Ticket.

 

Race 10 BC Spring 6F

Private Zone – He’s actually burned me twice in his last two races and I’m hoping to make amends here. Private Zone is not your typical speed freak, don’t get me wrong, this horse is among the fastest in the country but he can duel and survive as proven in his last two races. He will be at the front of this pack, count on that, but don’t be surprised to see him put away the rest of the pace and then hold off or even fight back against the closers.

Justin Phillip – Nobody was more surprised to see Private Zone battle back than John Velaquez aboard Justin Phillip in the Vosbergh at Belmont on 9/28. Cruising, JP tracked Private Zone down the stretch and appeared to have him put away only to watch Private Zone respond unbelievably on the rail and steal the victory. That being said, Justin Phillip has been battling against most of the horses in this race and has at least won as many as he’s lost. If he gets help in the form of added pace pressure on the top pick he can win this one.

Secret Circle – Ugh, 1 Race in the last eighteen months and even that was an Optional Claimer against 4 other horses. That was the first sprint for this horse in nearly two years. Never in a million picks would I have a horse like this on my Pick 4 ticket if not for the trainer … Bob Baffert. He does this, and does it well. That one race just three weeks ago at Santa Anita was a good one and Secret Circle displayed fine form rating off a hot pace and closing strongly for the win. I can’t cross this horse out especially if a pace battle ensues.

Fast Bullet – If you are willing to draw a line thru that last performance (I was) on a sloppy Saratoga track then his last two Beyer speed scores of 110 & 109 put him right in this mix. He put those up following a bit of a learning experience in last year’s BC sprint. Bit of a concern to see only three starts since last year’s BC for a very lightly raced 5-year old. I might use him in my pick 4. Maybe.

Race 11 BC Mile

Wise Dan – Silver Max ended his win streak by getting loose on the lead and settled in to hold off Wise Dan down the stretch in a race over a sloppy Polytrack surface at Keenland. Obviously & Bright Thought will ensure a faster pace so How do you go against Wise Dan today? This is his surface (turf), his distance (1 mile) and quite frankly … his race. Come and beat him but I don’t think anybody will. This is my single in the Pick-4

No Jet Lag – Because scratches happen and nothing is certain in racing I have this guy as my top pick in the event Wise Dan scratches. 2 for 2 in this country and at this distance he got a perfect trip in the City of Hope Mile at Santa Anita and sprung the upset at 13-1 odds. He’s got a good post as #1 starters have taken 19% of these turf races.

Olympic Glory – I’ve never seen him run. But on paper his numbers look like he could be a match for Wise Dan provided he ships ok and takes to the Santa Anita turf which tends to be a bit firmer than the courses this guy has likely seen in Great Britain. I don’t like the fact that he raced just 13 days ago and had to ship overseas since that time. Tough way to go.

He Be Fire n Ice – Minus the top pick and with a good pace from the likely front runners could set it up for his late run. More likely he gets 2nd or 3rd… but at the price he should get could be worth a spot on the pick 4. Again, only if WD scratches though.

Race 12 BC Classic 1.25 Miles

Game on Dude
Game on Dude – The best and most consistent stakes horse in California since … Lava Man? The Dude has all the tricks in his bag but with a heavy speed bias at Santa Anita in route races don’t be surprised if Mike Smith takes him to the front and try’s to wire the field the way he did in the Pacific Classic. He’s started 8 races at Santa Anita in his career. He’s gone to the winner’s circle 7 times but his lone defeat was here just a year ago. With Mike Smith up, I say he makes amends.

Mucho Macho Man – Goes anywhere, takes on everybody, And more often than not Mucho Macho Man comes out on top. Chased eventual winner Fort Larned all the way to the wire in last year’s Classic and recently scored a big victory over a good field at the Awesome Again Stakes over this same track and looked great in doing so. With red hot Gary Stevens aboard he will sit just off the pace and wait for his chance to pounce. A Definite player.

Palace Malice – He’s an “iffy” right now. I like him. Not sure about going against older. But I think he has the talent to do it and he has the right style. It’s just, the Jockey Club Gold Cup. I saw it, and he had a good trip, a very good trip in fact but then made up absolutely no ground against a good older horse who scratched out of this race in Ron the Greek. RTG is a good horse and fits well with Game on Dude and Mucho Macho Man. So does Palace Malice? Not sure.

Will Take Charge – Another talented 3 year old going against the older foes for the first time and again I’m just not sure today if I will include on my late pick 4. His record against Palace Malice combined with what I said above about that one are the reason he is also “iffy”.
My $0.50 Pick-4 Ticket in all likelihood is ...

4,8,10,12/1,7,9/8/6,8,9,10 ($24) or ($30) if I decide to include The Fugue.
 
My Family at the 2012 Santa Anita Derby
 
Good Luck,
Rich