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| Santa Anita Racetrack |
If you know anything about gambling, well then you probably know a lot more than I do. That being said one of the great horse racing days of the year is going on over at Santa Anita racetrack where the Breeder's Cup races are taking my place. My handicapping skills being what they are I HIGHLY caution anyone using the information below to actually wager money. I am not one to identify high odds long shots and these are just some of my thoughts on the last four races taking place tomorrow.
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| My Wife & I at Santa Anita Derby 2013 |
Race 9 BC Turf 1.5
Miles
Big Blue Kitten – He has one big run, oh but what a run the
big guy has. He should be on a 3-Race Win streak in G1 races for those who saw
the TurfClassic at Belmont on 9/28. He encountered traffic that stalled his big
run, then managed to wind it up again and just missed. Now I will say this, due
to his running style, he always encounters trouble. Such is life when
you come from the back of a big field, but he’s done it before. Given a relatively
good trip, it’s his day.
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| Point of Entry |
Point of Entry – At another time, he may have been a single
for me in my pick-4 ticket for this race. One of the best distance turf horses
I’ve seen in recent memory the Point of Entry of 6 months ago smokes this
field. But today’s entry is coming off an injury and a 4-month layoff to heal a
leg fracture and returns in a tough race. I can’t leave him out, because well …
he still is who he is. But he’s not my top pick either.
Little Mike – The defending champion in this race is hard to
ignore at 1.5 miles, this is his distance, he just won the aforementioned
TurfClassic at Belmont on 9/28 holding off Blue Kitten and Real Solution in the
deep stretch and he proved last year that he likes the turf course at Santa
Anita. Add hall of famer Mike Smith to that package and you have a potential
repeat winner in the Turf.
Real Solution – The winner of the Arlington Million just
came off his first try at this distance and finished a good 3rd
behind Little Mike and Big Blue Kitten. Already owns a victory over the former
and yet to face the latter. The running style says he gets this distance and he
fits in this race. I can’t eliminate him from my Pick 4.
The Fugue – I took a look at the filly from overseas. I
don’t like the angle of shipping in from overseas much less the girl going long
against the boys. Yes, I know she won at this distance, and in fact has hit the
board in all four tries at this distance so far in her career. And she may hit
the board again today, just not the winner. She was in the Female Turf Race last year at
Santa Anita and finished 3rd in a race that included Marketing Mix
who I think would have trouble against a group like this. She won’t be on my
Pick 4 Ticket.
Race 10 BC Spring
6F
Private Zone – He’s actually burned me twice in his last two
races and I’m hoping to make amends here. Private Zone is not your typical
speed freak, don’t get me wrong, this horse is among the fastest in the country
but he can duel and survive as proven in his last two races. He will be at the
front of this pack, count on that, but don’t be surprised to see him put away
the rest of the pace and then hold off or even fight back against the closers.
Justin Phillip – Nobody was more surprised to see Private
Zone battle back than John Velaquez aboard Justin Phillip in the Vosbergh at
Belmont on 9/28. Cruising, JP tracked Private Zone down the stretch and
appeared to have him put away only to watch Private Zone respond unbelievably
on the rail and steal the victory. That being said, Justin Phillip has been
battling against most of the horses in this race and has at least won as many
as he’s lost. If he gets help in the form of added pace pressure on the top
pick he can win this one.
Secret Circle – Ugh, 1 Race in the last eighteen months and
even that was an Optional Claimer against 4 other horses. That was the first
sprint for this horse in nearly two years. Never in a million picks would I
have a horse like this on my Pick 4 ticket if not for the trainer … Bob
Baffert. He does this, and does it well. That one race just three weeks ago at
Santa Anita was a good one and Secret Circle displayed fine form rating off a
hot pace and closing strongly for the win. I can’t cross this horse out
especially if a pace battle ensues.
Fast Bullet – If you are willing to draw a line thru that
last performance (I was) on a sloppy Saratoga track then his last two Beyer
speed scores of 110 & 109 put him right in this mix. He put those up
following a bit of a learning experience in last year’s BC sprint. Bit of a
concern to see only three starts since last year’s BC for a very lightly raced
5-year old. I might use him in my pick 4. Maybe.
Race 11 BC Mile
Wise Dan – Silver Max ended his win streak by getting loose
on the lead and settled in to hold off Wise Dan down the stretch in a race over
a sloppy Polytrack surface at Keenland. Obviously & Bright Thought will
ensure a faster pace so How do you go against Wise Dan today? This is his
surface (turf), his distance (1 mile) and quite frankly … his race. Come and
beat him but I don’t think anybody will. This is my single in the Pick-4
No Jet Lag – Because scratches happen and nothing is certain
in racing I have this guy as my top pick in the event Wise Dan scratches. 2 for
2 in this country and at this distance he got a perfect trip in the City of
Hope Mile at Santa Anita and sprung the upset at 13-1 odds. He’s got a good
post as #1 starters have taken 19% of these turf races.
Olympic Glory – I’ve never seen him run. But on paper his
numbers look like he could be a match for Wise Dan provided he ships ok and
takes to the Santa Anita turf which tends to be a bit firmer than the courses
this guy has likely seen in Great Britain. I don’t like the fact that he raced
just 13 days ago and had to ship overseas since that time. Tough way to go.
He Be Fire n Ice – Minus the top pick and with a good pace
from the likely front runners could set it up for his late run. More likely he
gets 2nd or 3rd… but at the price he should get could be worth
a spot on the pick 4. Again, only if WD scratches though.
Race 12 BC Classic 1.25 Miles
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| Game on Dude |
Game on Dude – The best and most consistent stakes horse in
California since … Lava Man? The Dude has all the tricks in his bag but with a
heavy speed bias at Santa Anita in route races don’t be surprised if Mike Smith
takes him to the front and try’s to wire the field the way he did in the
Pacific Classic. He’s started 8 races at Santa Anita in his career. He’s gone
to the winner’s circle 7 times but his lone defeat was here just a year ago. With
Mike Smith up, I say he makes amends.
Mucho Macho Man – Goes anywhere, takes on everybody, And
more often than not Mucho Macho Man comes out on top. Chased eventual winner
Fort Larned all the way to the wire in last year’s Classic and recently scored
a big victory over a good field at the Awesome Again Stakes over this same
track and looked great in doing so. With red hot Gary Stevens aboard he will
sit just off the pace and wait for his chance to pounce. A Definite player.
Palace Malice – He’s an “iffy” right now. I like him. Not
sure about going against older. But I think he has the talent to do it and he
has the right style. It’s just, the Jockey Club Gold Cup. I saw it, and he had
a good trip, a very good trip in fact but then made up absolutely no ground
against a good older horse who scratched out of this race in Ron the Greek. RTG
is a good horse and fits well with Game on Dude and Mucho Macho Man. So does
Palace Malice? Not sure.
Will Take Charge – Another talented 3 year old going against
the older foes for the first time and again I’m just not sure today if I will
include on my late pick 4. His record against Palace Malice combined with what
I said above about that one are the reason he is also “iffy”.
My $0.50 Pick-4 Ticket in all likelihood is ...
4,8,10,12/1,7,9/8/6,8,9,10 ($24) or ($30) if I decide to include The Fugue.
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| My Family at the 2012 Santa Anita Derby |
Good Luck,
Rich
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